Arrest of governor, voter fatigue cloud Indonesia’s Nov 27 regional elections seen as test for President Prabowo

JAKARTA: Millions of Indonesians headed to polling stations on Wednesday (Nov 27) to elect 545 regional leaders across the world’s third-biggest democracy, an event analysts say will shape Indonesia’s political landscape over the next five years.
Indonesians will elect 37 governors, 93 mayors and 415 regents after an official campaigning period that began on Sep 25 and ended on Nov 23.
The candidates largely hail from two political factions: President Prabowo Subianto’s 11-party Advance Indonesia Coalition or KIM Plus, and former president Megawati Soekarnoputri’s Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P). A minority are independent candidates.
For Mr Prabowo, the elections will likely determine how well his policies and programmes are implemented on the ground, which ultimately translates to his re-election chances when his term ends in 2029, should he decide to seek a second term.
“If a (regional) leader comes from the opposition camp, then there is a high chance that region will not support decisions and programmes made (by the Prabowo administration) on a national level,” Mr Hendri Satrio, a political analyst from Jakarta’s Paramadina University, told CNA.
For the PDI-P, the elections are a chance to make a comeback and stay relevant after its candidate Ganjar Pranowo – a former governor of Central Java – came in last in the presidential election with 16.5 per cent of the vote.
Mr Prabowo won with 58.6 per cent of the vote in February while former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan was second with 24.9 per cent.
The PDI-P, however, managed to secure the most votes in the legislative election held on the same day, Feb 14, and retain its title as the country’s largest party in parliament.
“The PDI-P will fight very hard not to lose the regional election, particularly in provinces known to be PDI-P strongholds,” Mr Hendri said.
Another former president’s shadow looms large.
The election will be a test of Mr Joko Widodo’s king-making ability after he successfully helped his defence minister, Mr Prabowo, ascend to the presidency. Mr Prabowo’s vice-president is Mr Widodo’s eldest child Gibran Rakabuming Raka.
Mr Widodo, known as Jokowi, was a member of the PDI-P before he decided to go against the party by not supporting Mr Ganjar’s presidential bid.
Jokowi’s son-in-law Bobby Nasution is running for governor of North Sumatra against the PDI-P-supported incumbent Edy Rachmayadi.
Voting will be conducted from 7am to 1pm local time across Indonesia’s three time zones, after which votes will be tallied. 
In Jakarta, people made their way to polling stations early to avoid the afternoon downpours that the capital has seen in the last few days. 
The city of 11 million people has 14,775 polling stations in the regional elections, of which 572 are in flood-prone areas. News site Detik reported earlier this week that Jakarta authorities were considering cloud seeding to stimulate rains over the Java Sea to prevent inland flooding on election day.
Three candidates are vying to become governor of the country’s biggest and most important city: former West Java governor Ridwan Kamil, retired police general Dharma Pongrekun and former minister, Pramono Anung.
Mr Ridwan is backed by KIM Plus, Mr Dharma is running as an independent candidate while Mr Pramono is a senior PDI-P politician. 
The Jakarta governor position is considered one of Indonesia’s most prestigious political posts, with Jokowi and Mr Anies previously occupying the position.
Rising cost of living, high unemployment rate and a dwindling middle class is high on voters’ minds as well as Jakarta’s crippling traffic, floods and worsening air pollution. 
“I want a governor who ensures that the rivers are clean and does everything that he can to reduce flooding,” said 33-year-old Badruddin, a resident of a flood-prone area in West Jakarta who voted. 
“I also want a governor who not only cares about beautifying the city centre but also cares about people living on the fringes like us.”
But voter turnout remains to be seen. 
At a polling station in South Jakarta, only 132 out of 548 registered voters had cast their ballots when CNA visited at 11am, four hours after the polls opened. 
“The polling station was really quiet. There were only a few polling officials and no voters. We came, voted and went home in a span of just five minutes,” said 40-year-old Yenny Agustina, who was with her 70-year-old mother Yuliana.  
“It is night and day compared to the presidential election. I guess people are just not excited about the regional elections.”
Experts had predicted low turnout, citing the high number of undecided voters in several gubernatorial races. 
Pollsters put the number of undecided Jakarta voters at between 11 and 15 per cent.
“No one seems to be offering viable solutions to these problems. That’s why the number of undecided voters is high,” Mr Adi Prayitno, a political science lecturer at Jakarta’s Syarif Hidayatullah Islamic University told CNA.
The percentage of undecided voters is estimated at 17 to 43.1 per cent in West, Central and East Java.
Voter turnout for February’s presidential election was 81.7 per cent.
Independent pollsters and the country’s General Elections Commission will start compiling the results from 3pm local time. 
The process of tallying these votes usually takes a few hours and Indonesians should know unofficial “quick count” results by around 6pm. 
Official results will not be out until one or two weeks after the election as they involve lengthy verification processes.    
In Jakarta, surveys have shown the PDI-P- and Anies-backed Pramono having a slight lead over the Prabowo- and Jokowi-supported Ridwan Kamil.
The race for Jakarta governor will extend to 2025 with a run-off between the top two candidates, if no single candidate wins more than 50 per cent of the vote on Nov 27.
Other battlegrounds are the populous provinces of West, East and Central Java, with a population of 49.8 million, 41.8 million and 37.8 million people, respectively.
In the West Java gubernatorial race, the Prabowo coalition-backed candidate Dedi Mulyadi has been soaring in latest surveys, which suggest he may secure up to 71.5 per cent of the vote, far ahead of his three rivals.
In East Java, the Prabowo coalition-backed incumbent Khofifah Indar Parawansa is predicted to beat two other candidates with around 55.1 per cent of the vote.
The Central Java gubernatorial election is a tighter race, with various surveys showing it could go to either Prabowo- and Jokowi-backed Ahmad Luthfi or PDI-P-supported former military chief Andika Perkasa. 
In a reflection of the stakes involved, Mr Prabowo endorsed Mr Ahmad on Nov 3 despite earlier pledges that he would remain neutral during the regional elections.
If KIM Plus’ candidates win in most, or all of these battlegrounds, Mr Prabowo’s implementation of policies such as the free-meals programme is likely to be smoother. The PDI-P, however, will face an uphill battle to regain dominance.
If the PDI-P and KIM Plus win their share of the key provinces, the power struggle between Mdm Megawati, and Mr Prabowo and Jokowi, is set to continue.
The regional elections have been blighted in recent days by the arrest of Bengkulu governor Rohidin Mersyah and two officials for suspected corruption on Sunday (Nov 24). 
Rohidin is seeking re-election in the Sumatran province and is accused of extorting money from subordinates by threatening to remove them from their positions if they did not contribute to his campaign. 
Investigators seized banknotes in various currencies worth 7 billion rupiah (US$440,000) from the suspects, Corruption Eradication Commission deputy chairman Alexander Marwata said.
Mr Alexander reportedly said Rohidin’s case reflected a larger trend of vote-buying ahead of the elections, and the commission has received other tip-offs.